United Kingdom Local Elections Betting Guide (Odds, History, Contenders)

The UK local elections should indicate how the political parties are viewed in the country. Have the Conservatives clawed back some of their supporters after their devastating loss in North Shropshire? Has Sir Keir Starmer moved the needle for Labour and thrown off the Corbyn shackles. Should we be taking the Lib Dems seriously as a credible alternative to the "big two" The bookmakers will have betting odds on a range of local election markets.

United Kingdom Local Elections Betting Guide (Odds, History, Contenders)

May 2022 Elections

The 2022 UK local elections will be held on Thursday 5th May. 

Different councils go to the polls to select councillors in their area, in some cases all seats are being voted for, and in other areas, only 33% or 50% of seats are in play. 

Punters will take a keen interest in the betting on offer in:

  • England (60 District Councils)
  • England (31 Metropolitan Councils)
  • England (17 Unitary Authorities)
  • Scotland (32 Local Authorities)
  • Northern Ireland (Northern Ireland Assembly - 90 Seats) 
  • Wales (22 Local Authorities)
  • London (All 32 Borough Councils)
  • London (5 Mayoral Elections)


The best betting sites and leading betting exchanges will have odds and markets on the local elections across the country. 

Most bookmakers have dedicated political sections on their index with the May elections expected to see plenty of bets placed, especially in those devolved countries and the Mayoral elections. 

Ballot Box

The Labour party will hope to make substantial gains in these elections and the results should give us some idea of how the country views Sir Keir Starmer. 

For the Conservatives has Boris Johnson managed to quell the fury from his supporters after the Owen Paterson and BYOB scandals? 

If the Torys do badly then Boris could be forced out by his backbenchers and exit as Prime Minister, BOJO exit betting is already available.

The Lib Dems were the beneficiaries of disgruntled Tories in the latest By-Elections, can they continue their upward curve?

Mayoral Elections

In 2022 there are 7 Mayoral elections in the following areas. 

All are held by Labour except Watford who is a Lib Dem and Croydon which will elect its first Mayor in 2022. 

  • Croydon
  • Hackney
  • Lewisham
  • Newham
  • Tower Hamlets
  • Watford
  • South Yorkshire 

Betting Exchanges already have markets on South Yorkshire where Labour are heavily odds on and Croydon where the odds indicate it could go to either Labour or Conservative.  

Croydon Mayoral Election Betting

Party Betting Exchange 01/02/2022 Betting Exchange 01/03/2022 Betting Exchange 21/04/2022
Labour 1.63 1.32 1.43
Conservative 2.08 2.5 3.4
Andrew Pelling (Independent)

14.00
Green 19.0 19.5 200.00
Liberal Democrat 19.0 19.5 150.00


South Yorkshire Mayoral Election

Party Betting Exchange 01/02/2022 Betting Exchange 01/03/2022
Betting Exchange 21/04/2022
Labour 1.08 1.03 1.01
Conservatives
20.0 24.0 32.0
Liberal Democrat
101.00 101.00 44.0
Yorkshire Party 19.0 17.0 50.0



Political Betting Odds

The best betting sites are featuring more and more political betting markets on offer, the May 2022 elections are expected to continue this upward trend.

The Best Betting Sites

Scotland

The last Scottish Council Elections were in 2017, the results of those elections are below. 

All the major parties will be looking to increase the seats won in 2017 and their share of the total vote. 

In Scotland, all 32 local authorities will have an election based on a single transferable vote, resulting in each party getting a share of the vote. 

Labour Party Pro UK

The Labour leader in Scotland reiterated that all their candidates would be pro-UK, thus giving voters a definitive choice at these elections.

In 2022 the parties will be looking to gain overall control of some councils, in 2017 no party had overall control of any council on the Scottish mainland. 

For example, the SNP are the largest party in Aberdeen City with 19 seats but the other parties and independents have 26 seats, thus resulting in no overall control. 

Political Party 2017 Election - Seats Won  Percentage
SNP 431 35.1%
Conservative 276 22.5%
Labour 262 21.4%
Independents 168 14.1%
Liberal Democrats 67 5.5%
Green 19 1.6%
Other Partys 4 0.1%


Scottish Conservatives Votes

The leader of the Scottish Conservatives is Douglas Ross, he has called for Boris Johnson to resign after the Downing Street party was revealed. This discord in the Tory ranks will have massively damaged their chances at these elections.

Council Largest Party in 2017
Aberdeen City SNP
Aberdeenshire Conservative
Angus SNP + Independents
Argyll and Bute SNP
Clackmannanshire SNP
Dumfries and Galloway Conservative
Dundee City SNP
East Ayrshire SNP
East Dunbartonshire SNP
East Lothian Labour
East Renfrewshire Conservative
City of Edinburgh SNP
Falkirk SNP
Fife SNP
Glasgow City SNP
Highland Independent
Inverclyde Labour
Midlothian Council Labour
Moray SNP
Na h-Eileanan Siar Independent
North Ayrshire Labour + SNP
North Lanarkshire SNP
Orkney Independent
Perth and Kinross Conservative
Renfrewshire SNP
Scottish Borders Conservative
Shetland Independent
South Ayrshire Conservative
South Lanarkshire SNP
Stirling Conservative + SNP
West Dunbartonshire SNP
West Lothian SNP

Wales

The last local elections in Wales were in 2017 with the results below

There are 22 local councils in Wales and all seats will be contested. 

The Labour Party will look to strengthen their grip by taking power in the councils where there is no overall control (11 of the 22), if they can do that it will have been a good election for Sir Keir Starmer and Mark Drakeford. 

Some seats will have new boundaries which will affect results. 

The Conservatives may be squeezed even further by their rivals in Wales. 

Political Party 2017 Election - Seats Won Percentage 
Labour  468 30.4%
Independents 309 22.5%
Conservative 104 18.8%
Plaid Cymru 208 16.5%
Liberal Democrats 63 6.8%
Other
23 2.5%
Green 1 1.3%


Council Largest Party In 2017
Isle of Anglesey Plaid Cymru
Blaenau Gwent Independent
Bridgend Labour
Caerphilly Labour
Cardiff Labour
Carmarthenshire Plaid Cymru
Ceredigion Plaid Cymru
Conwy independent
Denbighshire Conservative
Flintshire Labour
Gwynedd Plaid Cymru
Merthyr Tydfil Independent
Monmouthshire Conservative
Neath Port Talbot Labour
Newport Labour
Pembrokeshire Independent
Powys Independent
Rhondda Cynon Taff Labour
Swansea Labour
Torfaen Labour
Vale of Glamorgan Conservative
Wrexham Independent



Northern Ireland

The Northern Ireland Assembly election sees the big dogs of Northern Ireland politics going head to head with the DUP and Sinn Fein virtually neck and neck. 

90 seats make up the assembly with the two parties holding just over 60% of all seats. 

Northern Ireland Assembly Make Up

Since the 2017 election, the Democratic Unionists have lost 2 seats and Sinn Fein 1 making them level pegging at 26 apiece they go into this 2022 election.

Sinn Fein looks most likely to be the largest party on May 6th and be in a position to take the First Minister role, although the smaller parties could make significant inroads with voters who are weary of the backwards and forwards of the DUP and Sinn Fein. 

Party 2017 Election - Seats Won
DUP 28
Sinn Fein 27
SDLP  12
UUP 10 
Alliance 8
Green 2
Other 2

London Boroughs - All Seats

All the 32 councils in London will hold elections in May.

The bookmakers have odds on those seats that are high profile or are close calls. 

Barnet Council

The Labour party are looking to take overall control of the council for the first time ever. 

The Conservatives are fighting to hang on to the council, the odds indicate a close-run contest that could go either way.

Party Betting Odds Percentage Chance
Labour 8/11 57.80%
Conservative 6/5 45.45%
No Overall Control 12/1 7.69%


  1. Barking and Dagenham
  2. Barnet
  3. Bexley
  4. Brent
  5. Bromley
  6. Camden
  7. Croydon
  8. Ealing
  9. Enfield
  10. Greenwich
  11. Hackney
  12. Hammersmith and Fulham
  13. Haringey
  14. Harrow
  15. Havering
  16. Hillingdon
  17. Hounslow
  18. Islington
  19. Kensington and Chelsea
  20. Kingston upon Thames
  21. Lambeth
  22. Lewisham
  23. Merton
  24. Newham
  25. Redbridge
  26. Richmond upon Thames
  27. Southwark
  28. Sutton
  29. Tower Hamlets
  30. Waltham Forest
  31. Wandsworth
  32. Westminster

Metropolitan District - Birmingham - All Seats

The West Midlands city will hold a full election for all  101 seats on the council. 

The 2018 election result was as follows. 

Party Birmingham Councillors Elected Vote Percentage
Labour 67 50.2%
Conservative 25 28.8%
Liberal Democrats 8 14.1%
Green 1 4.4%

District Councils - A Third Of Seats

There are 54 district councils holding elections, with a third of seats being voted for.

  1. Amber Valley
  2. Basildon
  3. Basingstoke and Deane
  4. Brentwood
  5. Broxbourne
  6. Burnley
  7. Cambridge
  8. Cannock Chase
  9. Carlisle
  10. Castle Point
  11. Cherwell
  12. Chorley
  13. Colchester
  14. Craven
  15. Crawley
  16. Daventry 
  17. Eastleigh
  18. Elmbridge
  19. Epping Forest
  20. Exeter
  21. Harlow
  22. Hart
  23. Havant
  24. Hyndburn
  25. Ipswich
  26. Lincoln
  27. Maidstone
  28. Mole Valley
  29. North Hertfordshire
  30. Norwich
  31. Pendle
  32. Preston
  33. Redditch
  34. Reigate and Banstead
  35. Rochford
  36. Rossendale
  37. Rugby
  38. Runnymede
  39. Rushmoor
  40. South Lakeland
  41. St Albans
  42. Stevenage
  43. Tamworth
  44. Tandridge
  45. Three Rivers
  46. Tunbridge Wells
  47. Watford
  48. Welwyn Hatfield
  49. West Lancashire
  50. West Oxfordshire
  51. Winchester
  52. Woking
  53. Worcester
  54. Worthing

District Councils -50% of Seats

50% of the council's seats will be voted for. 

  1. Adur
  2. Cheltenham
  3. Fareham
  4. Gosport
  5. Hastings
  6. Nuneaton and Bedworth
  7. Oxford

District Councils - All Seats

These 4 district councils hold full elections with all seats up for grabs. 

  1. Harrogate
  2. Huntingdonshire
  3. Newcastle-under-Lyme
  4. South Cambridgeshire

Metropolitan District Councils - A Third Of Seats

There are 33 metropolitan district councils 

  1. Barnsley
  2. Bolton
  3. Bradford
  4. Bury
  5. Calderdale
  6. Coventry
  7. Dudley
  8. Gateshead
  9. Kirklees
  10. Knowsley
  11. Leeds
  12. Liverpool
  13. Manchester
  14. Newcastle Upon Tyne
  15. North Tyneside
  16. Oldham
  17. Rochdale
  18. Salford
  19. Sandwell
  20. Sefton
  21. Sheffield
  22. Solihull
  23. South Tyneside
  24. St Helens
  25. Stockport
  26. Sunderland
  27. Tameside
  28. Trafford
  29. Wakefield
  30. Walsall
  31. Wigan
  32. Wirral
  33. Wolverhampton

Unitary Authorities - A Third Of Seats

There are 17 unitary authorities holding elections for a third of the seats on their councils. 

  1. Blackburn with Darwen
  2. Derby
  3. Halton
  4. Hartlepool
  5. Hull
  6. Milton Keynes
  7. North East Lincolnshire
  8. Peterborough
  9. Plymouth
  10. Portsmouth
  11. Reading
  12. Slough
  13. Southampton
  14. Southend
  15. Swindon
  16. Thurrock
  17. Wokingham

Betting On The May Elections

There is nothing complicated about political betting, it is a betting market just like a list of horses for the Grand National, although in this case, it will be for candidates and parties. 

You simply need to go to your favourite betting app and head to the political betting section in the menu, then select the constituency or country you are interested in. 

The bigger betting sites will have odds available on selected constituencies as will the betting exchanges of Betfair and Smarkets. 

The Mayoral elections and Scotland and Northern Ireland contests are expected to be the most popular when it comes to placing bets. 


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